Sarah Champion MP and Ryan Henson on CGP's Red Wall Polling Project
Red Wall voters reshaped British politics in 2019 and who they vote for in 2024 will largely decide who wins the next election. Ensuring public policy is adjusted to account for this powerful new group understandably occupies the thoughts of Westminster decision makers. Besides getting Brexit delivered, what motivates this influential group of electors?
Towards the end of last year, the Coalition for Global Prosperity asked them what they thought about Global Britain, and specifically what they think about overseas aid. The group polled had all switched their vote to the Conservatives in 2019 and 89% supported leaving the EU.
On whether or not the UK should support developing countries, the results were a near split. A third support the UK helping others overseas, just over a third oppose, while just under a third are undecided. When drilling down into the details, 80% of voters who switched to the Conservatives in 2019 support the statement that Britain should be a force for good in the world, and agree that helping the world’s poorest people is the right thing to do. There is an incorrect but persistent assumption in Westminster that voters beyond the South East don’t support things like international development. Polling shows the reality is far more nuanced. The established narrative that all Red Wall voters are anti-aid is therefore clearly in need of a review.
Just as decision makers should not assume those who switched to the Conservatives in 2019 are all anti-aid, similarly charities and NGOs should take another look at how best to communicate with this large section of influential voters, a third of whom have yet to make up their minds.
From our perspective, the UK’s Aid Budget is both the smart, and the right thing to do. Right, because helping those who cannot help themselves is morally just. And smart because when we help bring security and prosperity to some of the world’s most vulnerable people, we help secure our own interests and security too. We now know that a virus in Wuhan can swiftly become a virus in Rotherham. As James Mattis, the retired United States Marine Corps four-star general and former Defence Secretary to President Trump said “The less you spend on aid, the more I have to spend on bullets”. Aid must remain a core component of British foreign policy alongside diplomacy and defence, and not an optional add-on.
The UK’s response to the Ebola crisis in 2014 and 2015 was an example of Britain at its best. The UK led the international response in Sierra Leone bringing together British aid workers, diplomats, NHS staff and our world class armed forces. When the world stepped back, Britain stepped up. Our swift action saved thousands of lives abroad and stopped the disease from spreading to our shores too.
The UK is a world leader in international development, it generates significant soft power, and helps support the world’s most vulnerable people. Ahead of COP26 and the UK’s hosting of G7 later this year, we have a chance to showcase British expertise on the world stage at a time when the country and the world needs experience and leadership on global public health, climate change, education of women and girls and a range of topics that UK aid will be essential to help tackle. As the polling now shows, far from costing votes in the Red Wall regions at the next election, the party strongest on these topics may well reap the benefit.
Sarah Champion is Labour MP for Rotherham and Chair of the International Development Committee
Ryan Henson is Chief Executive of the Coalition for Global Prosperity
This article first featured in Times Red Box here on January 12th 2021. The full write-up of our findings is here.
