Transatlantic Ties:

UK-US Relations to 2045

A powerful new report from the Coalition for Global Prosperity, authored by researcher Thomas Nurcombe and introduced by former Defence and International Trade Secretary The Rt Hon Sir Liam Fox, has sounded the alarm over the future of the UK’s most important alliance. Titled “Transatlantic Ties: UK–U.S. Relations to 2045”, the report warns that without urgent action, Britain’s special relationship with the United States risks weakening just as the world enters a new era of strategic instability.

Drawing on expert insights, the report highlights that, despite having mutual threats, the UK is not effectively sharing the security burden with the United States and must step up. The UK must play a role in countering a full spectrum of our shared threats and challenges: China’s technological and military capabilities, Russia’s continued overt and covert threat to Europe and to America via the Arctic, the anti-Western movement promoted by Beijing and Moscow, and economic insecurity driven by an adversarial stranglehold on critical minerals.
The report calls for the UK to become a more capable and committed ally in a pre-war era, demonstrating leadership across defence, development, and diplomacy to ensure continued American trust and investment in the transatlantic alliance — regardless of who occupies the White House.

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“It is high time we ask not what America can do for us, but what together we can do to promote our mutual freedom, prosperity and security. There is, quite simply, no time for complacency.

Every second that we stall, our adversaries gain, and the transatlantic rift threatens to expand. Building upon our deep historical ties with Washington, now is the time to work on every front to reinvigorate the strength of the transatlantic alliance in a world between orders.”

- The Rt Hon Sir Liam Fox, former Secretary of State for Defence and International Trade, in his foreword

Watch Sir Iain Duncan Smith MP on Sky News

Watch Senior Researcher and Report Author Thomas Nurcombe on GB News

Key findings of the report include:

The Relationship Is Under Strain:
The UK-U.S. alliance faces its greatest challenge since the Second World War. The special relationship is underpinned by the strategic value that each country brings to the other’s foreign policy. But the UK is failing to pull its weight in supporting American interests.

China is striving ahead in technological and military capabilities:
China already exceeds the United States in military mass and is quickly catching up in technological capabilities, increasing chances of aggression. The United States needs partners to pull together to maintain its military advantage.

Competition with Russia will go beyond the war in Ukraine:
Russia sees the next decade as a defining moment in its competition with the United States. It will continue to seek to bolster its military, and exploit new avenues to undermine the West, including in the Arctic and across the developing world.

The Global South is a new battleground, and the transatlantic alliance is losing
Authoritarian states are expanding their influence in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Middle East through soft power initiatives, security cooperation, infrastructure deals, debt-trap diplomacy, and disinformation — filling voids left by Western retreat and threatening UK and U.S. interests.

British and American defence and industry is at the mercy of the Chinese Communist Party:

Chinese dominance over critical mineral processing threatens to cut off the lifeblood to Western industries in a time of crisis. The UK and US need to align and diversify supply chains for minerals by supporting in-country processing of minerals across the Commonwealth.

Development, Diplomacy and Defence Must Align:
To renew the special relationship in a pre-war era, ensuring deep cooperation across all fronts, the UK must demonstrate leadership across all pillars of foreign policy. Britain must go beyond rhetoric and step up in defence spending, technological innovation, strategically-aligned development, and its position at the UN and in the Commonwealth.

The report urges the UK Government to:

The UK should convene an AUKUS Pillar 2 forum biannually to lay out a clear strategy and priorities for Pillar 2 and create an effective ecosystem for research and development collaboration for new defence technologies.
The UK should do more to expose in international institutions, like the UN, human rights abuses and a neglect of local laws inherent to Chinese development projects as a pathway to counter Beijing’s soft power.
The UK should set a pathway to increase core defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2030.
The UK should invite a U.S. delegation to JEF Summits to showcase the role of Northern European countries in burden sharing.
The UK should seek to establish a UK-U.S.-led minilateral development partnership that is open to involvement from like-minded allies for a more flexible and faster method to align development spending to mutual strategic priorities.
The UK should push to give Commonwealth nations observer status in the Minerals Security Partnership to enable discussions on how Western nations and investors can better support sustainable, responsible, and high-quality mineral extraction and in-country processing across the Commonwealth.

The Rt Hon Sir Iain Duncan Smith MP, Member of Parliament for Chingford and Woodford Green and former Leader of the Conservative Party

Dr Neil Shastri-Hurst MP, Member of Parliament for Solihull West and Shirley and Vice-Chair of the APPG on AUKUS

"The Coalition for Global Prosperity is absolutely right to publish this timely and important report. We are entering the most dangerous period in global affairs since the end of the Cold War.

At the heart of our defence of democracy, freedom of expression, and the rule of law has always been the UK–US relationship, embodied by two individuals, President Reagan, and Prime Minister Thatcher. That alliance isn’t built on sentiment, but on shared values and a mutual understanding that freedom and democracy are the foundation of any stable society.

The challenge that we now face is a rising axis of authoritarian states, with China at its core, closely aligned with regimes in Russia, Iran, North Korea, Myanmar, and Laos. This axis is growing in power, while the West has done little so far to deal with it.

Now more than ever, the UK, aligned with our US partners, must lead the NATO alliance in urgently developing a strategy to counter this growing threat to global stability."

"Our democratic allies in NATO are facing a new threat from totalitarian regimes led by Moscow and Beijing. The UK has a vital role in meeting the challenge and carrying its share of the weight to secure the alliance and the transatlantic relationship in an unstable world.

This means a quick and substantial boost to defence spending, and aligning development with strategic priorities to stop today’s friends from switching to tomorrow’s rivals as they drift into autocratic hands. We can only do that by embedding security into every layer of our society and deepening the leadership we can offer partners.

The special relationship is not a one-way street. It is time that we not only upheld our commitments to our closest ally, but exceed them."

"The Special Relationship between the United Kingdom and the United States is undeniably a cornerstone of our security, prosperity, and global influence. But in a rapidly changing world, where an axis of autocracies – Russia, China, Iran and North Korea – pose new and clear threats to our democracies, it is of paramount importance that the unique bond between our two nations remains strong.

I am proud that previous Conservative Governments took bold steps, like the landmark AUKUS agreement, to deepen the special relationship long into the future. The new Government must continue to strengthen collaboration between Westminster and Washington to ensure that Britain and America remain global leaders in our mutual challenges.

The United Kingdom has always been proud of our special alliance, and now should be no different. This report from the Coalition for Global Prosperity sets out clear, vital, and proactive steps to make that happen.

Aphra Brandreth MP, Member of Parliament for Chester South and Eddisbury, and Member of the Foreign Affairs Committee

"In an increasingly dangerous and competitive world, our national and economic security must come first. Strengthening our alliance with the United States, making it fit to face up to all of our shared challenges, is key to that mission.

As China expands its global reach and Russia ramps up its anti-Western aggression, the UK must stand shoulder to shoulder with our American allies to push back. The safety of our citizens and our economic resilience depend on it.

This report from the Coalition for Global Prosperity lays out a bold vision for how we can make the special relationship fit for the modern day. We must reinforce the alliance, sharpen our shared influence, and ensure that the partnership remains the foundation of security, prosperity, and democratic leadership in an unstable world."

Saqib Bhatti MBE MP, Member of Parliament for Meriden and Solihull East and Shadow Minister for Education

“The rules-based international order, which the UK and US have proudly defended for decades, is under threat from all sides. Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine and hybrid warfare against the West, China’s rising power and grip on global supply chains, and Iran’s destabilising influence all represent our greatest challenge since the Second World War.

"Without a clear, credible strategy to keep our alliances strong, the UK will pay the price, and this will be felt by every citizen. The special relationship with the United States is our best defence against autocracies. It is how we preserve a world governed by rules, not brute force and intimidation. The UK must step up and do more to address these hostile states. Failing to do so risks alienating Washington. The Coalition for Global Prosperity is right: Britain must deploy every tool in its foreign policy arsenal to ensure that this alliance thrives.”

The challenges confronting the transatlantic alliance are growing in both scale and complexity. From Russia’s aggression to China’s strategic assertiveness, there are those who seek to weaken the rules-based international order and undermine the values that bind us together. At such a moment, unity and resolve among allies are not optional; they are essential.

For generations, Britain and America have been the bedrock of the democratic world. Time and again, we have stood shoulder to shoulder in defence of freedom, security, and human dignity. Today, we must once more stand together to prevent the world from descending down a darker path.

However, if we are to renew and strengthen the special relationship for a new era, Britain must continue to show leadership: politically, militarily, and diplomatically. Whether through deepening our engagement in AUKUS, supporting NATO’s collective defence, or deploying our global capabilities to stand firm against those who would divide and destabilise, the UK has a vital role to play.

This report from the Coalition for Global Prosperity rightly underlines the urgency of the moment. It offers clear, constructive steps to ensure that our alliance with the United States remains strong, and that the values we share continue to shape a freer and safer world.

Bradley Thomas MP, Member of Parliament for Bromsgrove and the Villages, and Member of the Energy Security and Net Zero Committee

Harriet Cross MP, Member of Parliament for Gordan and Buchan

The Rt Hon Tom Tugendhat MBE VR MP, Member of Parliament for Tonbridge and former Minister for Security

“It is naïve to the point of negligence not to accept that every part of our lives is under threat from a rising authoritarian axis reshaping global affairs. It is a threat that we have not witnessed in 80 years and a threat we cannot remain asleep to. Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea have locked arms, backing both overtly and covertly each other’s aggression, repression, and hostile ambitions. They are deliberately targeting the safety of our citizens, the resilience of our industries, and the values that we champion: democracy, human rights, and sovereignty. We are in a 21st century arms race which reaches far beyond traditional targets and into the everyday lives of citizens – into our infrastructure, communication and energy networks, supply chains and the devices which we all hold on our person 24/7. The threats have never been closer.

No free nation can face up to these threats alone. The world has changed, and our alliances must reflect this change. Just as Britain and America stood together against tyranny 80 years ago, and on numerous occasions since, we must do so again. To deter conflict, we must be prepared for it.

The Coalition for Global Prosperity’s report provides the blueprint: only a bold, united UK-US partnership, alongside our aligned global partners, taking collective action through both our mutual and individual strengths across defence, diplomacy, development, intelligence, and industry can ensure that the freedoms and values which over generations we have fought so hard for and hold so dear, prevail.”

“President Trump’s return to office sparked concern in Europe over the future of the transatlantic alliance. Too many leaders, including here in the UK, have been overly reactive to the administration’s rhetoric and have lost sight of a basic truth: we face the same threats as the United States, but we are not doing enough to meet them.

Deepening the special relationship for a pre-war era must be Britain’s top priority. The UK must urgently do more to protect our shared interests and counter our shared adversaries, using every tool of statecraft. If we don’t step up, we risk watching our most vital relationship unravel, leaving us dangerously exposed.”

- Thomas Nurcombe, Senior Researcher and Report Author

“This report is a call to action. If the UK wants to remain at the heart of global decision-making, we must renew our relationship with Washington. By showing strategic value, we can ensure American commitment to NATO and global security continues.”

- Ryan Henson, CEO of the Coalition for Global Prosperity

Acknowledgments

The Coalition for Global Prosperity is grateful to a number of experts who have offered insights for this research: Philippe Dickinson, Atlantic Council; Ed Arnold, Royal United Services Institute; Emma Ashford, Stimson Center; Nevada Lee, Stimson Center; James Gray, former Member of Parliament for North Wiltshire; Dr Kyle Balzer, American Enterprise Institute; Mark Bergman, 7 Pillars Global Insights; Professor Wyn Rees, University of Nottingham; Robert Benson, Center for American Progress; Sophie Rutenbar, New York University Center for International Cooperation; Jason Moyer, Atlantic Council; Dr Hugo Rosemont, King’s College London; Dr Emma Salisbury, Council on Geostrategy.

This research has also been supported by meetings with decision-makers in both Washington and London who cannot be named.

The recommendations and conclusions from this report do not necessarily represent those who have offered insights for the research.