1946 Forum Dinner - January 2026
The start of 2026 has been messy, to say the least. America’s capture of Nicolas Maduro, concern over the future of Greenland, and protests against the evil regime of Ali Khamenei in Iran have meant that foreign policy analysts have had no end of stories to keep track of.
In this context, the Coalition for Global Prosperity held its 1946 Forum cross-party dinner in the iconic Churchill War Rooms, bringing together key decision-makers and thought-leaders to discuss the relevance of the transatlantic relationship and how to navigate pressing foreign policy issues in a continuously changing global environment. We were thrilled to hear the views of our guest speakers - Dr Karin von Hippel, former Director-General of the Royal United Services Institute, and George Graham, Executive Director for Global Impact at Save the Children - and are thankful for the thoughts of all our attendees, which included MPs, academics, think tankers, and defence and security experts.
The world has moved on from the so-called rules-based international order, and the question that should be asked now is ‘what order comes next?’ But attendees noted that the shift away from the rules-based order has not been caused by Trump. Indeed, the shift was occurring well before his electoral successes. Failures in the war on terror, the annexation of Crimea in 2014, China’s rising power and disregard to international rules and norms, and then the full-scale invasion of Ukraine have all created a world where, once more, national power is the determinant of security and the foundation of international affairs. Trump is simply a reflection of this shift.
Whilst commentary of Trump’s second presidency has been caught up with domestic issues in the US and his unconventional approach to alliances and statecraft, attendees ensured a measured view. Trump has, in some ways, had a positive impact on Europe. He has woken Europe from its strategic slumber and has inadvertently strengthened the ties of democratic nations, particularly between the UK, Europe, Canada and Indo-Pacific allies such as Australia, New Zealand, and Japan. That said, whilst Europe is taking steps to bolster its own security, it is still dragging its feet. The new NATO target of 3.5% of GDP on core defence spending and 1.5% on security-related spending is neither far nor fast enough to enhance national security and deter autocratic expansionism.
Reflecting on the Cold War and Churchill’s Iron Curtain speech delivered 80 years ago this year - the inspiration for CGP’s 1946 Forum - attendees remarked that the UK and the Western alliance achieved peace through strength, using all forms of statecraft to that end. Strong defence and nuclear power deterred Soviet expansionism into Western Europe, development efforts both in Europe through the Marshall Plan and across the newly decolonised Global South ensured that more countries did not fall behind that Iron Curtain, and diplomatic work reinforced the strength and success of alliances such as NATO.
The dinner closed with attendees in agreement that in a world defined by power and American unpredictability, the need to revitalise all elements of national power has never been more important. Today, the West faces not just one autocratic power but two - Russia and China. Both are attempting to reshape a global order in their interests through aggression and coercion, posing profound threats to British and allied security and interests. As such, the need to align defence, development and diplomacy, whilst ensuring that they are underpinned by geopolitical realities, is critical.
