The Price of Dependency: Unpicking the People’s Republic of China’s Influence and Coercion Across the Commonwealth
Consecutive UK governments have underinvested in the UK’s relationships with Commonwealth countries, to the benefit of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), which has become the largest trading partner and, in many cases, the largest bilateral debt owner of Commonwealth countries. As a result, the PRC is increasingly able to exert influence and coerce Commonwealth countries into aligning with the PRC’s core foreign policy aims.
2025 was the highest year for Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) engagement ever, with the PRC offering $128.4 billion in construction contracts and a further $85.2 billion in investments. In 2025, African countries accounted for nearly half of all BRI construction projects (47.2%).
As a result of PRC development loans, the PRC owns a significant amount of bilateral debt in 31 out of the 56 Commonwealth countries, which represents well over half of the Commonwealth. The PRC is a large bilateral debt owner in 16 African countries, four Asian countries, six Pacific countries, and five Caribbean and South American countries in the Commonwealth.
As a result of the PRC owning a significant proportion of Commonwealth countries' bilateral debt, increased PRC development loans and investments, and the removal of tariffs on Commonwealth goods, many policymakers in the Commonwealth have sought to align their countries with the PRC’s world view. This has come in the form of supporting the PRC at the United Nations Human Rights Council against criticism of human rights violations in Xinjiang, the imposition of the National Security Law in Hong Kong, and the PRC’s claims in the South China Sea, as well as endorsing the PRC’s key foreign policy initiatives including the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative, the Global Governance Initiative, and the Global Civilization Initiative, joint-policing and security agreements, and allowing dual-use Chinese military vessels to dock in their ports.
“For too long, Whitehall has failed to craft an ambitious and modern approach to the Commonwealth, one that respects its historic importance, but also its strategic significance. By contrast, China sees the value of its member states. They are the foundation for Beijing to build a global system that places its autocratic values and interests at its heart. Britain stepping back is allowing China to step in, entrenching its influence via economic means to shape the future alignment of countries across Africa, Asia, the Pacific and the Caribbean. The fact that Beijing is the largest owner of many Commonwealth countries’ bilateral debt should be a source of alarm not just for us in Britain, but for our allies in Europe, North America and Asia.”
“Britain must lead once more and deepen our relationship with Commonwealth countries. The recommendations in this report are a good place to start.”
- Graeme Downie MP
Key Recommendations
The FCDO should create a Minister with specific responsibility for engaging and coordinating with the Commonwealth.
As part of developing a new approach to international development, the UK should offer professional services pro-bono to support debt renegotiation for Commonwealth countries, with a particular focus on BRI loans from the PRC.
The FCDO should coordinate with India, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, and other interested Commonwealth members on joint-infrastructure development projects across the Commonwealth.
The UK should withdraw from Beijing’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and use its membership subscription to fund the creation of a Commonwealth Development Bank.
The Ministry of Defence should develop and maintain a risk register to monitor PRC military and police partnerships across the Commonwealth and their impact on UK national security interests.
The FCDO, in coordination with the Commonwealth Secretariat, should consider the creation of Commonwealth regional hubs with an emphasis on shared research and development across Africa, the Caribbean, South Asia, and the Pacific.
The FCDO should give UK Ambassadors and High Commissioners the discretion to process senior foreign government officials' visas at UK consulates and amend the policies of UK embassies and consulates to reflect the cultural norms of the countries they operate in.